Bitcoin Price Analysis [BTC]
From the charts, BTC prices are scant and confined within a tight trade range. Even so, we retain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin as long as our trade conditions are valid. Note that—and as per our previous emphasis—buyers have a chance once prices edge past Jan 14 highs of $3,800.
The $3,800 not only doubles up as a minor resistance level but as an essential Fibonacci retracement level based on Dec 2018 high low, a breakout above it preferably with above average trade volumes could lay the foundation for higher highs towards $4,500 triggering conservative long positions.
At the moment, none of our trade conditions are valid. Therefore, we shall retain a neutral outlook aware that losses below $3,700 main support could see prices tumble to $3,200 or lower.
Strong price movements can only be at the back of stellar participation. It’s clear that this is lacking and with averages of 14k—down from 18k when prices sank below $4,000 on June 10, any breakout above $3,800 or below $3,700 or Dec 28 should be at the back of above average volumes exceeding 35k or 20k on the lower limit.
Ethereum Price Analysis [ETH]
On a conference call this Friday with Ethereum’s lead developers, it was announced that the hard fork is now scheduled to occur on, or around, February 27th on block number 7,280,000.
Security Flaws Lead to Ethereum (ETH) Constantinople Delay:
Ethereum saw some decent price gains earlier this month that many analysts attributed to the Constantinople upgrade, which will reduce the new supply of ETH by 33%. Over the long run, analysts speculated that this supply reduction would lead ETH to see greater price stability and gradual gains.
Prior to the hard fork being delayed, Michael Moro, the CEO of Genesis Global Trading, spoke about the importance of the supply reduction feature, saying that it could be bullish for ETH’s price. “Being that the inflation rate will drop by a third, it could potentially reduce selling pressure that could come from the miners’ reward,” he said. Mati Greenspan, the senior market analyst at eToro, also spoke about the event in an email, saying that Constantinople will lead to a new version of Ethereum that is “faster, cheaper, and has 33% less inflation.”
Although the security flaw, which was discovered this past Tuesday by ChainSecurity – a smart contract security audit firm – did lead to a delay of the event, the supply reduction feature that analysts deemed as being bullish will still be implemented when the upgrade occurs next month.
Although it is hard to tell how much of Ethereum’s January price surge is directly the result of investors anticipation of Constantinople, its price did drop nearly 8% after the delay and security flaw were announced earlier this week.
Constantinople Security Flaws to Be Solved in Subsequent Hard Fork :
Originally, Constantinople featured five Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) that were intended to be incorporated all at once. Now, the one EIP that contained the security flaw has been removed from the February hard fork, and will be incorporated at a later time after more thorough testing can be done.
Péter Szilágyi, an Ethereum developer, spoke about the new hard fork plan in a recent tweet, saying: “Seems we’re going with block 7.28M for the Ethereum Constantinople refork scheduled for the 27th of February!
Will be a single fork on mainnet and a post-Constantinople-fixup fork on the testnets to get them back in line feature-wise with the main network.” As the new upgrade date nears, investors and traders trying to profit from the event will likely exercise increased caution, as it is possible that there will be further delays if more issues are discovered.
Ripple Price Analysis [XRP]
At the chart and XRP is struggling. Not only are prices accumulating within a 2 cents range with caps at 34 cents but from an effort versus result approach, bulls are in charge since prices are within Jan 14 high low. Regardless, we shall not recommend immediate buys at spot rates not until XRP bulls drive prices above 34 cents—a level that also doubles up as the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level. Our long-term bullish stance is still valid as long as spot prices are maintained above 30 cents and most importantly from 25 cents—which mark Sep 2018 lows. If anything, the monthly bull bar will always define the long-term trajectory of this coin, and unless otherwise there are rapid drawdown, it is likely that prices will expand to 60 cents—Dec 2018 highs and later 80 cents subject to a high-volume, ecstatic break and close above 40 cents or the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level off Sep 2018 high-low.
Transaction volumes are low, and perhaps this could explain tight ranges inside Jan 14 high low. Though sellers may have the upper hand in the short-term, rejection of lower lows and subsequent rally from 30 cents to above 35 cents and even 50 cents should be at the back of high trade volumes exceeding 83 million on the upper end and daily averages of 23 million.
Litecoin Price Analysis [LTC]
At spot rates, Litecoin is relatively unchanged in the last 24 hours. Nonetheless, sellers have an upper hand when we analyze price performance from a top-down approach. Note that sellers are pressing lower despite LTC prices dropping more than 90 percent from 2017 peaks.
From a technical price action perspective, this is a deep correction and the only path of least resistance is an upward correction towards the $100–$150 zone. Before then, the short term trend appears to be under the control of buyers. As we can see, the first level of resistance is at $35 and the mark was breached on Jan 6 but gains reversed when prices dumped on Jan 10.
Unless otherwise there are strong, high volume rallies above $35 conservative traders should watch price from the sidelines. All the same, we expect prices to recover thanks to yesterday’s bull pin bar—long lower wick and virtually no upper wick pointing to demand in lower time frames.
Aside from that, there is rejection of lower lows right off the 61.8 percent Fibonacci running off Dec 2018 high low. Further cementing our conviction is the inability of sellers to confirm Jan 10 lower lows as price action oscillates within Jan 14 bull bar. Should prices rally above $40, our first modest target will be $50 and later $70.